{"id":1348,"date":"2020-12-06T15:14:19","date_gmt":"2020-12-06T14:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/?p=1348"},"modified":"2024-12-29T13:24:13","modified_gmt":"2024-12-29T12:24:13","slug":"kako-kladionice-postavljaju-kvote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/clanak\/kako-kladionice-postavljaju-kvote\/","title":{"rendered":"Kako kladionice odre\u0111uju kvote za sportske ponude?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Uspje\u0161ne i poznate <a href=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/kladionica\/\">kladionice<\/a> nisu svoj uspjeh postigle na riskiranju i postavljanju kvote &#8220;na osje\u0107aj&#8221;. Puno je razmi\u0161ljanja ulo\u017eeno u postavljanje kvota na odre\u0111ene sportske doga\u0111aje pa tako imamo situacije u kojoj im je zapravo nebitno koja ekipa pobje\u0111uje jer oni u svakom slu\u010daju ostvaruju profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Za\u0161to kvote idu u prilog kladionicama? | Geek Jackpot\" width=\"1170\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3q02_MOQ2Yo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Odre\u0111ivanje margine<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"722\" src=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-1024x722.jpg\" alt=\"postotci\" class=\"wp-image-11121\" srcset=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-1024x722.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-768x542.jpg 768w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-57x40.jpg 57w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-450x317.jpg 450w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-45x32.jpg 45w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-113x80.jpg 113w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote-191x135.jpg 191w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Foto: Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Kladionice prvo odre\u0111uju marginu koju \u017eele postaviti, recimo da je ona 5% (u tekstu kasnije \u0107emo objasniti i \u0161to su to\u010dno margine). <a href=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/kladionica\/\">Kladionica<\/a> na osnovu raznih informacija i statistika tada ra\u010duna vjerojatnost odre\u0111enog ishoda te od njega oduzme marginu. Ako je primjerice, vjerojatnost ili kvota nekog doga\u0111aja procijenjena na 3.00, kladionica kvote umanjuje za marginu od 5% i dobivamo kona\u010dnu kvotu od 2.85.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Statistike i forma <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kao \u0161to smo spomenuli, kladionice se koriste statistikom, formama, povijesti, pa \u010dak i ljudskim mi\u0161ljenjima pri odre\u0111ivanju po\u010detne kvote na odre\u0111eni doga\u0111aj. \u0160to je vi\u0161e informacija i podataka dostupno, izglednije je da \u0107e kladionica postaviti kvote koje su sukladne stvarnoj vjerojatnosti. Ako se radi o nekom sportskom doga\u0111aju koji \u0107e se odr\u017eati prvi puta, kladionice moraju biti posebno oprezne i njihove kvote \u0107e biti manje nego \u0161to je to prava vjerojatnost za neki ishod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Primjerice, nogometne kvote po pravilu imaju dobru vrijednost jer postoji ogromna koli\u010dina podataka i statistika. S druge strane, kvote kladionica na neke doga\u0111aje kao \u0161to su posebne oklade, recimo <a href=\"https:\/\/eurovision.tv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Eurosong<\/a> kla\u0111enje, bit \u0107e puno manje i imati ve\u0107u marginu, naposljetku i priu\u0161titi ve\u0107u zaradu kladionici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0160to je zapravo margina?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0160to su onda uop\u0107e margine i kako kladionice zara\u0111uju od njih? Najlak\u0161i na\u010din da odgovorimo na to pitanje je da se prisjetimo nekog doga\u0111aja na kojem postoje samo dva mogu\u0107a ishoda. Recimo da se radi o teniskom me\u010du  i oba igra\u010da imaju identi\u010dne \u0161anse za pobjedu. Naivni kladioni\u010dari pomislit \u0107e kako \u0107e u prosjeku pola kladioni\u010dara uplatiti na jednog, a pola na drugog igra\u010da i koji god pobijedi, kladionica ne\u0107e ostvariti profit ve\u0107 se ostati na nuli. To bi vjerojatno i bilo tako kad ne bi postojale margine.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"770\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote.jpg\" alt=\"kvote na kladionici\" class=\"wp-image-1504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote.jpg 770w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-300x156.jpg 300w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-768x400.jpg 768w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-77x40.jpg 77w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-62x32.jpg 62w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-154x80.jpg 154w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2020\/05\/kvote-260x135.jpg 260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 770px) 100vw, 770px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Na doga\u0111ajima s dva ishoda nikad ne\u0107ete vidjeti da je kvota kladionica na svaki ishod 2.00, ve\u0107 \u0107e one biti malo manje, ali poprili\u010dno blizu 2.00. Recimo da su kvote na oba ishoda 1.91. Vi stavljate na svaki ishod 50 eura, dakle ulo\u017eili ste ukupno 100 eura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sada kad pogledate koliko vam je mogu\u0107i dobitak na nekom od ta ishoda, dolazite do zaklju\u010dka da je on 95.50 eura. Upravo u ovih 4.50 eura nedostatka krije se margina o kojoj govorimo. Ona iznosi 4.5% u ovom slu\u010daju, a to je i na prvi pogled o\u010digledno te ne zahtijeva puno ra\u010dunanja. 4.5% od 100 eura iznosi 4.50 eura. Naposljetku zaklju\u010dak je da u prosjeku, na svakih 100 ulo\u017eenih eura kladionica zara\u0111uje 4.50 eura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Koje kvote naj\u010de\u0161\u0107e prolaze?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sad kada znamo kako funkcionira ra\u010dunanje kvota, neki od nas mogli bi se zapitati postoje li one koje prolaze \u010de\u0161\u0107e od drugih. To\u010dnije, postoje li me\u0111u njima one koje su najisplativije tako da su dovoljno visoke da mo\u017eemo ostvariti profit, a da istovremeno nisu rizi\u010dne za odigrati. Na\u017ealost, odgovor na to pitanje je da takvih kvota jednostavno nema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kladionice ih postavljaju na takav na\u010din da \u010dak i ako ve\u0107ina igra\u010da uspje\u0161no predvidi neki ishod, one \u0107e i dalje bilje\u017eiti profite dugoro\u010dno. Ne postoji neka univerzalna formula koja \u0107e igra\u010dima dati do znanja \u0161to odigrati, ve\u0107 \u0107e oni sami morati donijeti tu odluku na osnovu svog istra\u017eivanja i analize. Mogu\u0107e je da \u0107e kladionice ponekad ne\u0161to procijeniti krivo i ostaviti neku ve\u0107u vrijednost za zaradu na kvoti koju su postavile, a upravo tu le\u017ee najve\u0107e \u0161anse igra\u010da za zaradom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Zaklju\u010dak<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"statisti\u010dki grafovi\" class=\"wp-image-11122\" srcset=\"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-60x40.jpg 60w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-48x32.jpg 48w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-120x80.jpg 120w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1-202x135.jpg 202w, https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/65\/2022\/11\/kvote1.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Foto: Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Na kraju vrijedi jo\u0161 spomenuti da vjerojatnost nije jedini aspekt postavljanja kvota. Va\u017enu ulogu igraju i procjene koliko bi kladioni\u010dari zapravo mogli naginjati na jednu stranu i upla\u0107ivati na odre\u0111eni ishod. \u010cak i u susretima koji imaju 50-50 \u0161anse u korist oba sudionika, javnost \u010desto ima svog favorita i zbog ovog ili onog razloga podr\u017eat \u0107e ga. Naj\u010de\u0161\u0107e je to zbog navija\u010dke privr\u017eenosti ili nekog detalja koji se u zadnji tren pojavio u medijima. U tom slu\u010daju, kvota na ishod koji upla\u0107uje ve\u0107ina \u0107e pasti, a sukladno tome, porasti na suprotni ishod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To je posebice slu\u010daj kod kla\u0111enja u\u017eivo gdje je potrebno pratiti doga\u0111anja na terenu iz sekunde u sekundu, pa je potrebno kvote prilago\u0111avati u stvarnom vremenu. Tu se ujedno javljaju i neke \u0161anse igra\u010da za zaradom ako njegova reakcija i osje\u0107aj budu dovoljno brzi da preduhitre kladionicu. Upravo je to jedan od najboljih razloga za nau\u010diti kako se ra\u010dunaju kvote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uspje\u0161ne i poznate kladionice nisu svoj uspjeh postigle na riskiranju i postavljanju kvote &#8220;na osje\u0107aj&#8221;. Puno je razmi\u0161ljanja ulo\u017eeno u postavljanje kvota na odre\u0111ene sportske doga\u0111aje pa tako imamo situacije u kojoj im je zapravo nebitno koja ekipa pobje\u0111uje jer oni u svakom slu\u010daju ostvaruju profit. Odre\u0111ivanje margine Kladionice prvo odre\u0111uju marginu koju \u017eele postaviti, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3841,"featured_media":1965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[31,223],"class_list":["post-1348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kladenje","tag-kladionica","tag-kvote"],"modified_by":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3841"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1348"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12442,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348\/revisions\/12442"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geek.hr\/jackpot\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}